New HPV vaccine study sparks enthusiasm — but the data reveal major flaws

A new Swedish registry study reports dramatic reductions in cervical cancer among HPV vaccinated women, yet the study’s own data tell a far less convincing story.

A new study published in The BMJ is being cited as definitive proof that the HPV vaccine prevents cervical cancer.

Within hours of publication, headlines proclaimed that the vaccine provides strong and lasting protection. On social media, commentators circulated claims that widespread vaccination could virtually eliminate the disease.

The response was unsurprising. The BMJ is one of the world’s most influential medical journals, and research published in its pages is often treated by journalists, policymakers and clinicians as authoritative evidence.

That authority gives studies published in the journal enormous influence over how medical evidence is interpreted by the public.

The new paper analysed nationwide registry data from Sweden and reported that women vaccinated against HPV before age 17 had about an 80% lower risk of cervical cancer than those who were unvaccinated.

The finding quickly gained traction online. Alex Berenson, a journalist with a large following on X, wrote that the Swedish data were “very impressive” and said the study had convinced him that his own daughter should receive the HPV vaccine.

The paper soon began trending as commentators debated what the results meant.

But a careful reading of the study — including its supplementary material and its peer-review correspondence — reveals a far less convincing picture.

Several details buried in the analysis raise important questions about the claimed benefits.