Someone once said that politicians should be like NASCAR drivers and show all their sponsors on their uniform. Maybe the same should apply to anyone commenting on public health matters.
Thanks Maryanne. Bald-faced lies by publicly respected people influencing millions of people ought to be called out, but very rarely are with such authority and documented precision. Well done! How do such people sleep at night?? Are they really just driven by personal wealth aspirations?? We only get one life - what a way to use it!
Offit avoids debates and doesn't enter into any interview where the journalist fact-checks him...and/or he will present "alternative facts" and will avoid providing evidence for these facts if queried about them. He is a classic example of the physician who has sold his soul to Big Pharma.
Worst of all, the media is complicit with him and allows him to fabricate his world view.
It was remarkable when he told the truth after the second Covid booster was released, and he told the media that he was NOT recommending it because there were no clinical trials showing their efficacy! Wow! And then, when the media stopped interviewing him, he wrote a super pro-vaccine book in get into their good graces again...and of course, he avoids questions about the efficacy of the Covid boosters.
Offit is the poster child for conflicted scientists who spout what his task masters want to hear.
"After the second Covid booster was released, and he told the media that he was NOT recommending it because there were no clinical trials showing their efficacy! Wow!"
. . .
Three years ago, David Zwieg wrote a still relevant essay (“Why Are We Boosting Kids?”)*1 He wrote that “Dr. Paul Offit … considered one the country’s top authorities on pediatric vaccine policy. … He recently said that getting boosted would not be worth the risk for the average healthy 17-year-old boy, and he advised his son, who is in his 20s, not to get a third dose” https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/01/should-teens-get-booster-omicron/621222/
I wonder if he, and his son, are now getting the annual Covid booster as (formerly) recommended by the CDC?
*1: David Zweig, “Why Are We Boosting Kids?” – The CDC and the FDA have ignored other countries’ caution, the WHO’s chief scientist, American experts, and their own data. https://www.thefp.com/p/why-are-we-boosting-kids
So put simply: the venerable, esteemed Dr. Paul Offit is a simple two-bit liar. Who knew. And who knew how gullible the MSM and CNN were. Paul Offit is a disgrace to medicine and to science. There is nothing worse than to lie about facts that anybody can check. And further, to claim that 50% of the US population is chronically infected with HBV is simply insane and provably nonsense. Dr. Offit deserves to have his medical license taken away from him.
“CDC data presented to ACIP last week make this clear [Armstrong's 30,000 children were speculative reconstructions, not surveillance data]. The national surveillance system (NNDSS) shows acute hepatitis B cases in children under 10 were extremely low — around 400 per year — before the universal birth dose was introduced.”
. . .
During the December 4th meeting, Dr. Nevision gave a presentation, “Burden of Disease,” about Heb B. However, this morning in his Substack post Dr. Offit falsely claimed that “Nevison had ignored the 1991 data [Armstrong's model] showing that thousands of American children had acquired hepatitis B infections from sources other than their mothers.” https://pauloffit.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-we-need-to-stop-trusting-experts
In reality, Dr. Nevison specifically discussed Armstrong's study. She concluded, “Horizontal transmission among young children is rare and was strongly overstated by the Armstrong et al. model.”
Was Offitt lying about “50% of people in this country have chronic hepatitis B and don’t know it,” or did he get confused and repeat his earlier “50% of people with chronic hepatitis" line, but screw up by changing one word?
I’m not sure. Did he misspeak? I asked him to clarify what he meant but got no response. He also did not respond to questions about his other claims which directly contradicted my own records.
It's possible he screwed up. But, he sure did say it with demonic self-confidence. To be less charitable, if he ever was called out on it, he could claim plausible deniability. In any case, his statement certainly raised the fear level among CNN viewers.
“Public health relies on trust, honesty and transparency. When influential experts make false claims, and networks fail to scrutinise them, the public is misled.
Offit declined the opportunity to clarify his statements. The record now speaks for itself.”
“Offit’s claim of “30,000 children under 10” infected annually is not grounded in evidence. It is a significant overstatement based on flawed modelling, not surveillance data.”
“In this new series, I will break down every study that Offit cites as proof of vaccine safety — and show that none of them actually prove what he claims. I’ll demonstrate that the design of most of these studies makes it impossible for them to truly prove what they are supposed to prove. I'll also show that, quite often, the studies Offit cites actually provide evidence against vaccine safety. I won't leave a single stone unturned when it comes to Offit’s arguments.”
“First, is it true that 16,000 children under ten were infected with hepatitis B annually in the U.S.? No one really knows. The article Offit references isn't a study but a statistical model based on assumptions that have little to do with reality. According to official CDC data,*1 before the widespread vaccination of infants, only one in a million [typo, actually about 1/100,000] children under 15 contracted acute hepatitis B.”
P.S. Amantonio's first book, "To Vaccinate or Not to Vaccinate," was essentially a “review of hundreds of scientific studies that ... demonstrate that vaccines are not as safe and effective as commonly believed. You can find his online version of his book at: https://en.scibook.org/content/vaccines/hepatitisB or buy it in book form.
*1: From W. Ray Kim in “Epidemiology of Hepatitis B in the United States” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14704650/ the “HBV is a reportable infectious disease in the United States and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been monitoring its incidence for several decades.” Figure 1 shows that new cases for those <15 years old was about 1.5/100,000. In early 90's, about 36,000,000 children under age, so about 360 infected each ear (vs modeled 30,000?!)
“Offit told CNN that before universal infant vaccination, “30,000 children under the age of 10” contracted hepatitis B each year. … Although Offit did not cite a source, his “30,000” figure appears to come from modelling work — specifically Armstrong (2001) — which did not actually count real cases.”
. . .
You are correct. In his blog post this morning, "RFK Jr.: “We Need to Stop Trusting Experts,”
Offit's cited reference was Armstrong, et al “Childhood hepatitis B virus infections in the United States before hepatitis B immunization” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11694691/
“Incidence of HBV infection in children was MODELED from existing prevalence data by means of regression analysis. … These rates indicate that by the early 1990s, [horizontal transmission of] HBV was infecting 16 000 children who were younger than 10 years ...”
The past few weeks, I've been reading Dr. Bob Sear's three vaccines books. https://drbobsears.com/books/ In the 2010 edition of “The Vaccine Book” he discusses the incidence of childhood Heb B infection (see pp. 50 - 53 and pp. 345 – 347).
Dr. Sears cited the CDC's MMWR 2002; 51(25):549-52,563. “In the “early 1990's, there was about 1 case for every 100K kids each year in our population of children from birth through nine years … were about 360 cases reported … each year” (p. 346).
So the DATA was a reported incidence of about 360 < 9 YO versus the MODEL estimating 16,000 – < 10 YO. Either the model is way off, or the CDC is doing a terrible job of collecting accurate incidence data. And, the CDC data includes both perinatal and horizontal transmission, but the model did NOT include perinatal transmission, so the model is off by even more [appears that total number would be about 30,000].
With models, the accuracy of the assumptions is critical. GIGO. Garbage in, Garbage out. A discrepancy of 100x between the reported data and the modeled number leads me to believe some of the modeling assumptions were not realistic.
P.S. Dr Sears also discusses Hep B incidence on pp. 9 – 13 of his 2019 book “A Tale of Two Sides” “Written under his pen name... a series of tales from his own experience that presents everything a new parent should know about vaccines, but in story form. ... real-life tales that portray every aspect of one of the most polarizing issues of our time” Dr. Sears is more candid in this “non-fiction” book than in his “objective” vaccine book. He's actually a decent fiction writer.
Dr Triple D .. deceptive, deceitful, and dangerous
.. by his habitual dishonesty he has become Death, the Destroyer of worlds .. of lives within ours
fortunately, by such investigations as this, Offit is proving to be patient zero for the herd immunity developing against his poisonous .. verging on criminal .. lies
how easy it is to detest such truly mad mad scientists as he
Wow. If 50% of Americans really did have Hepatitis, you would have to question that 34 years of vaccination at birth. 🤔
I had never closely examined the prevalence before, but even prior to the universal birth dose, the numbers were extremely low.
Well, a smart journalist would, but this is CNN. Those w/ brains need not apply.
Someone once said that politicians should be like NASCAR drivers and show all their sponsors on their uniform. Maybe the same should apply to anyone commenting on public health matters.
Disclosure is one thing....lying is another.
Thanks Maryanne. Bald-faced lies by publicly respected people influencing millions of people ought to be called out, but very rarely are with such authority and documented precision. Well done! How do such people sleep at night?? Are they really just driven by personal wealth aspirations?? We only get one life - what a way to use it!
Offit avoids debates and doesn't enter into any interview where the journalist fact-checks him...and/or he will present "alternative facts" and will avoid providing evidence for these facts if queried about them. He is a classic example of the physician who has sold his soul to Big Pharma.
Worst of all, the media is complicit with him and allows him to fabricate his world view.
It was remarkable when he told the truth after the second Covid booster was released, and he told the media that he was NOT recommending it because there were no clinical trials showing their efficacy! Wow! And then, when the media stopped interviewing him, he wrote a super pro-vaccine book in get into their good graces again...and of course, he avoids questions about the efficacy of the Covid boosters.
Offit is the poster child for conflicted scientists who spout what his task masters want to hear.
"After the second Covid booster was released, and he told the media that he was NOT recommending it because there were no clinical trials showing their efficacy! Wow!"
. . .
Three years ago, David Zwieg wrote a still relevant essay (“Why Are We Boosting Kids?”)*1 He wrote that “Dr. Paul Offit … considered one the country’s top authorities on pediatric vaccine policy. … He recently said that getting boosted would not be worth the risk for the average healthy 17-year-old boy, and he advised his son, who is in his 20s, not to get a third dose” https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/01/should-teens-get-booster-omicron/621222/
I wonder if he, and his son, are now getting the annual Covid booster as (formerly) recommended by the CDC?
*1: David Zweig, “Why Are We Boosting Kids?” – The CDC and the FDA have ignored other countries’ caution, the WHO’s chief scientist, American experts, and their own data. https://www.thefp.com/p/why-are-we-boosting-kids
So put simply: the venerable, esteemed Dr. Paul Offit is a simple two-bit liar. Who knew. And who knew how gullible the MSM and CNN were. Paul Offit is a disgrace to medicine and to science. There is nothing worse than to lie about facts that anybody can check. And further, to claim that 50% of the US population is chronically infected with HBV is simply insane and provably nonsense. Dr. Offit deserves to have his medical license taken away from him.
“CDC data presented to ACIP last week make this clear [Armstrong's 30,000 children were speculative reconstructions, not surveillance data]. The national surveillance system (NNDSS) shows acute hepatitis B cases in children under 10 were extremely low — around 400 per year — before the universal birth dose was introduced.”
. . .
During the December 4th meeting, Dr. Nevision gave a presentation, “Burden of Disease,” about Heb B. However, this morning in his Substack post Dr. Offit falsely claimed that “Nevison had ignored the 1991 data [Armstrong's model] showing that thousands of American children had acquired hepatitis B infections from sources other than their mothers.” https://pauloffit.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-we-need-to-stop-trusting-experts
In reality, Dr. Nevison specifically discussed Armstrong's study. She concluded, “Horizontal transmission among young children is rare and was strongly overstated by the Armstrong et al. model.”
Her presentation starts @ about 37:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpthhPBFAgI
Presentations slides: https://www.cdc.gov/acip/downloads/slides-2025-12-04-05/02-nevison-Hepatitis-B-508.pdf AND https://www.cdc.gov/acip/meetings/presentation-slides-december-04-05-2025.html
Time to skitch our very own American e-Karen onto him!
Was Offitt lying about “50% of people in this country have chronic hepatitis B and don’t know it,” or did he get confused and repeat his earlier “50% of people with chronic hepatitis" line, but screw up by changing one word?
I’m not sure. Did he misspeak? I asked him to clarify what he meant but got no response. He also did not respond to questions about his other claims which directly contradicted my own records.
It's possible he screwed up. But, he sure did say it with demonic self-confidence. To be less charitable, if he ever was called out on it, he could claim plausible deniability. In any case, his statement certainly raised the fear level among CNN viewers.
“Public health relies on trust, honesty and transparency. When influential experts make false claims, and networks fail to scrutinise them, the public is misled.
Offit declined the opportunity to clarify his statements. The record now speaks for itself.”
This says it all Maryanne!
“Offit’s claim of “30,000 children under 10” infected annually is not grounded in evidence. It is a significant overstatement based on flawed modelling, not surveillance data.”
. . .
A. Amantonio has written a series of articles critically examining Paul Offit's 2015 book “Deadly Choices: How the Anti-Vaccine Movement Threatens Us All." https://amantonio1.substack.com/p/questioning-offit-part-1-introduction
“In this new series, I will break down every study that Offit cites as proof of vaccine safety — and show that none of them actually prove what he claims. I’ll demonstrate that the design of most of these studies makes it impossible for them to truly prove what they are supposed to prove. I'll also show that, quite often, the studies Offit cites actually provide evidence against vaccine safety. I won't leave a single stone unturned when it comes to Offit’s arguments.”
In his June 12, 2025 Substack post, “Questioning Offit. Part 8. Hepatitis B,” Amantono critically examined the Armstrong study: https://amantonio1.substack.com/p/questioning-offit-part-8-hepatitis:
“First, is it true that 16,000 children under ten were infected with hepatitis B annually in the U.S.? No one really knows. The article Offit references isn't a study but a statistical model based on assumptions that have little to do with reality. According to official CDC data,*1 before the widespread vaccination of infants, only one in a million [typo, actually about 1/100,000] children under 15 contracted acute hepatitis B.”
P.S. Amantonio's first book, "To Vaccinate or Not to Vaccinate," was essentially a “review of hundreds of scientific studies that ... demonstrate that vaccines are not as safe and effective as commonly believed. You can find his online version of his book at: https://en.scibook.org/content/vaccines/hepatitisB or buy it in book form.
*1: From W. Ray Kim in “Epidemiology of Hepatitis B in the United States” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14704650/ the “HBV is a reportable infectious disease in the United States and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been monitoring its incidence for several decades.” Figure 1 shows that new cases for those <15 years old was about 1.5/100,000. In early 90's, about 36,000,000 children under age, so about 360 infected each ear (vs modeled 30,000?!)
“Offit told CNN that before universal infant vaccination, “30,000 children under the age of 10” contracted hepatitis B each year. … Although Offit did not cite a source, his “30,000” figure appears to come from modelling work — specifically Armstrong (2001) — which did not actually count real cases.”
. . .
You are correct. In his blog post this morning, "RFK Jr.: “We Need to Stop Trusting Experts,”
[ https://pauloffit.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-we-need-to-stop-trusting-experts ] he wrote “Nevison [ACIP presenter] had ignored the 1991 DATA showing that thousands of American children had acquired hepatitis B infections from sources other than their mothers.”
Offit's cited reference was Armstrong, et al “Childhood hepatitis B virus infections in the United States before hepatitis B immunization” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11694691/
“Incidence of HBV infection in children was MODELED from existing prevalence data by means of regression analysis. … These rates indicate that by the early 1990s, [horizontal transmission of] HBV was infecting 16 000 children who were younger than 10 years ...”
The past few weeks, I've been reading Dr. Bob Sear's three vaccines books. https://drbobsears.com/books/ In the 2010 edition of “The Vaccine Book” he discusses the incidence of childhood Heb B infection (see pp. 50 - 53 and pp. 345 – 347).
Dr. Sears cited the CDC's MMWR 2002; 51(25):549-52,563. “In the “early 1990's, there was about 1 case for every 100K kids each year in our population of children from birth through nine years … were about 360 cases reported … each year” (p. 346).
So the DATA was a reported incidence of about 360 < 9 YO versus the MODEL estimating 16,000 – < 10 YO. Either the model is way off, or the CDC is doing a terrible job of collecting accurate incidence data. And, the CDC data includes both perinatal and horizontal transmission, but the model did NOT include perinatal transmission, so the model is off by even more [appears that total number would be about 30,000].
With models, the accuracy of the assumptions is critical. GIGO. Garbage in, Garbage out. A discrepancy of 100x between the reported data and the modeled number leads me to believe some of the modeling assumptions were not realistic.
P.S. Dr Sears also discusses Hep B incidence on pp. 9 – 13 of his 2019 book “A Tale of Two Sides” “Written under his pen name... a series of tales from his own experience that presents everything a new parent should know about vaccines, but in story form. ... real-life tales that portray every aspect of one of the most polarizing issues of our time” Dr. Sears is more candid in this “non-fiction” book than in his “objective” vaccine book. He's actually a decent fiction writer.
thank you Dr Demasi,
Dr Triple D .. deceptive, deceitful, and dangerous
.. by his habitual dishonesty he has become Death, the Destroyer of worlds .. of lives within ours
fortunately, by such investigations as this, Offit is proving to be patient zero for the herd immunity developing against his poisonous .. verging on criminal .. lies
how easy it is to detest such truly mad mad scientists as he